UPDATE: Monday, May 6, 2024 · 12:31:00 AM +00:00
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If President Biden stopped sending weapons to Israel, that would be great, mainly because it’s the right thing to do. However, it would also help unify as much of the Democratic Party as possible. Again, the main reason I want that to happen is because it’s the right thing to do.
I put far more weight in the fundamentals of the election than I do polls, especially now. I think that Trump supporters are more likely to answer and respond to polls than supporters of President Biden. We know that the response rate is very low and that can cause problems when trying to get a random sample of the voters. Then, we have the issue of the screen and who is likely to vote. We face asymmetry which rewards the republican candidate early on. Trumpers/Republican Party voters will embrace and support Trump almost no matter what. What is going on with President Biden and our voters and Gaza makes it clear that those of us who are either members of the Democratic Party or who are left of center are harder to bring together to back the Democratic Party candidate. I suspect that those who have not already chosen to back Donald Trump won’t because if they embrace him now, then they are going to embrace him no matter. I suspect that the rest of them aren’t embracing him because they oppose all the crime and immorality that he embodies. It is May. We are six months out from the election. I suspect that most of the current holdouts will engage with the campaign as we get close to election day. I don’t put very much stock in polls this far out from election day. I would pay more attention to the fundamentals of the election which look to my eyes to strongly favor President Biden.
President Biden has better funding. President Biden has more small dollar donors. President Biden has more donors period. Donald Trump is using donations to his campaign for his legal expenses. President Biden has already started campaigning. Donald Trump has rarely campaigned since the trial began. It appears likely that we will get a guilty verdict out of the defendant’s criminal trial. I doubt that he is imprisoned. If he is, then it will actually be at home confinement. Being found guilty will take away whatever portion of Haley supporters that were still considering embracing the former president. The last time that an incumbent president lost re-election with an unemployment rate below six percent is Gerald Ford who lost re-election because he pardoned Richard Nixon for Watergate. Then we have the 38 special elections in which the Democratic Party has overperformed, almost certainly because of Dobbs. Previously we might have said that we could safely ignore this in the presidential election because Donald Trump has voters who only show up for him, but Dobbs that is driving the electoral success of the Democratic Party is directly related to Donald Trump who bragged that he “ended Roe” which is actually true. President Biden has more than 100 field offices in swing states whereas Donald Trump is near zero. President Biden’s campaign staff seem to understand which parts of the base have not embraced the campaign and joined in and they are appealing to them now. This shows that they are connected to reality and understand the deficits, the parts of the base who were with him in 2020 but who are not yet connected to the campaign. Yet, they understand that they will need independents and moderate republicans. Being indicted four times and charged with 88 felonies and being found liable for sexual assault and his corrupt business practices are likely to affect the likelihood of a win for the defendant, especially since he seems to have established a relatively low national popular vote ceiling of 47%.
The poll was conducted by Langer Research Associates on behalf of ABC/Ipsos.
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Donald Trump Gets Worrying Sign From New Poll Amid Manhattan Trial
Just looking at all adults surveyed, excluding people who said they wouldn't vote, 46 percent supported Trump while 44 percent supported Biden. However, Biden led Trump among registered and likely voters. A total of 46 percent of registered voters supported Biden while 45 percent supported Trump. Meanwhile, 49 percent of likely voters supported Biden while 45 percent supported Trump
I only bring this to your attention to show that polls have been changing gradually. Most polls now have President Biden either winning or tied nationally. If the polls are to be believed, we are narrowly behind in the three states nearly certain to decide the election. The defendant is ahead by 1.4, 42.2% to 40.8% in Michigan. The defendant is ahead in Pennsylvania 43.6% to 41.7%. The defendant is ahead 42.8% to 40.0% in Wisconsin. Polling in all three states gives Kennedy more than eight percent of the vote. It is, in my view, extremely unlikely that Kennedy gets more than four percent of the vote in states that are nearly certain to decide the election. The most important takeaway from these state polls is that in all three states, almost fifteen percent of the vote or more is not for President Biden or the defendant. Since Donald Trump has clearly established a low ceiling of 47% and recent events since his last national election have almost certainly lowered that ceiling, the greater the percentage of the vote that goes to third party candidates, the more likely the defendant is to win. As the campaigns and their allies make it plain how important it is for voters to vote for them and not a third party candidate since the state will decide the 2024 presidential election, the more likely it is for voters to choose a nominee of one of the two major political parties in this country. Since the fact is that the economy is good and we have come out of the pandemic better positioned than any other nation to prosper, then if I were to pick the candidate I would rather be based upon the polling and the economy and other fundamentals, ideology aside, I would rather be President Biden. He already won 81 million votes. It is easier to get people to vote for you again after they have already done so once, then to try to win over somebody who is opposed to you. It is my deep seated belief that many of our votes were driven by a profound dislike of the defendant. The defendant did not leave with a very high approval rating.
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The job approval rating of the defendant
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56.9% of voters disapprove of the defendant's job performance while 38.7% approved, giving us a negative 18.2% approval rating of the defendant . What does Gallup say?
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POLITICS
JANUARY 18, 2021
Last Trump Job Approval 34%; Average Is Record-Low 41%
The total 12-point drop in approval for Trump after the election is especially notable in that most departing presidents -- including two who were defeated for a second term -- enjoyed increases in job approval ratings between the time of the election to choose their successor and his inauguration. On average, "lame duck presidents" before Trump saw a seven-point increase in job approval. Jimmy Carter is the only other president whose approval ratings declined during the transition period.
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You say, but President Biden has even worse approval ratings. However, the difference is that President Biden has done a good job as president and didn’t do things to earn the ire of voters across the political spectrum. President Biden can correct his approval rating whereas the defendant cannot.
It is acknowledged by voters across party lines that Donald Trump mishandled the pandemic.
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Trump's handling of coronavirus pandemic hits record low approval: Reuters/Ipsos poll
October 8, 20205:47 PM CDTUpdated 4 years ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Americans are steadily losing confidence in President Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with his net approval on the issue that has dominated the U.S. election hitting a record low in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The poll taken Tuesday through Thursday, after Trump's COVID-19 infection and weekend hospitalization, found 37% of American adults approved of the president's handling of the pandemic and 59% disapproved.
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Voters in both parties disapprove of Donald Trump's incitement of the insurrection.
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Poll(s) of the week
In the wake of the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, public opinion is souring quickly on President Trump as he enters the final days of his term. Not only do a majority of Americans blame him for the riot at the Capitol and favor removing him from office, but his job approval rating has fallen faster in recent days than at any point in his presidency.
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Donald Trump was found liable for committing sexual assault and has been indicted four times and charged with 88 felonies. A majority of Americans believe the charges are warranted.
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A majority of Americans, in four recent polls, said Mr. Trump’s criminal cases were warranted. Most were surveyed before a grand jury in Georgia indicted him over his attempts to subvert the 2020 election, but after the federal indictment related to Jan. 6.
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Voters of both parties are opposed to Dobbs and the defendant admits that he “ended Roe”. Donald Trump owns Dobbs and everything associated with it.
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By Jamelle Bouie | The New York Times
| Feb. 17, 2024, 7:00 a.m.
As president, Donald Trump appointed the three justices who proved pivotal to the outcome in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned the Supreme Court’s 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade.
Trump has made it very clear that he is proud of this. He said so at the time. Dobbs, he pointed out in a statement, was “the biggest WIN for LIFE in a generation” and was “only made possible because I delivered everything as promised, including nominating and getting three highly respected and strong Constitutionalists confirmed to the United States Supreme Court.”
It was, he continued, “my great honor to do so!” If the ruling was Trump’s, then so are the results.
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Overturning Roe is unpopular and viewed as largely political.
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Overturning Roe is unpopular — and viewed as largely political
Polling conducted in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade paints a consistent picture: Most Americans oppose the decision and lack confidence in the Supreme Court itself. What’s more, there is broad concern that the court’s decision to roll back the right to abortion is simply the first in a series of similar rollbacks, potentially targeting same-sex marriage and the availability of contraceptives.
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These are facts. Therefore, as these are brought back to the forefront of the conscience of voters, they are likely to end with a very negative view. There are specific and powerful reasons to vote to defeat the defendant. President Biden’s lack of popularity isn’t due to anything he specifically did that Americans oppose or some scandal. There are various culprits, but he didn’t do any one or more acts that turned Americans deeply against him unlike the defendant. Almost all leaders of Western democracies who have been in power since 2020 or early 2021 are underwater in their approval ratings. This is because of the pandemic that their people endured and the economic consequences of the pandemic. The same is true of President Biden. President Biden is mentally sharp, but he slurs his words due likely to both his stutter and his age. The United States has recovered better from the pandemic than any other nation in the G7 and inflation is lower in the United States than in other comparable nations.
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Joey Politano posted the following:
US and EU GDP numbers are now in, which means another update to my G7 post-COVID GDP growth chart
Here’s each country’s cumulative increase in real GDP, since just before the pandemic:
US +9.4%
Canada +4.7% through 4th quarter
Italy + 3.9%
France +1.7%
Great Britain + 1.0% through 4th quarter
Germany + .6%
Japan + .2% through 4th quarter
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Inflation is lower in the United States than in other comparable nations.
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The United States has the lowest inflation rate in the G7
As the world emerged from the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic, most advanced economies experienced elevated inflation. U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target but is down substantially from its 2022 highs, with annual inflation declining in each of the past 12 months. Compared with advanced European economies, the United States has the lowest harmonized headline inflation rate—a comparable measure of inflation. (see Figure 1) In fact, compared with every other G7 economy, the United States has not just the lowest headline inflation but also the lowest core inflation—inflation that excludes volatile energy and food prices. Core inflation is the preferred measure of central banks.
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As I wrote in a previous diary with evidence, under President Biden, the United States has added 15.4 million jobs, more than 800,000 manufacturing jobs, wages are growing faster than inflation, the unemployment rate is 3.9% and the unemployment rate has remained below four percent for 27 consecutive months, the longest such continuous period since 1967 to 1970.
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U.S. inflation rate versus wage growth 2020-2024
The rate of inflation exceeded the growth of wages for the first time in recent years in April 2021. In March 2024, inflation amounted to 3.5 percent, while wages grew by 4.7 percent
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Yet, President Biden began with almost the entire Republican Party against him because of the defendant’s lies. Many voters either don’t care or don’t know that the United States is doing better with regard to inflation than any other nation in the G7. They experience inflation and they blame the person at the top, period. Most people do not get their information from the mainstream media. This means that people are often not getting accurate information. President Biden has not been as accessible to the American people as his predecessors. The New York Times decided to punish President Biden for their failure to honor background agreements by pushing a huge number of stories about his age. President Biden’s age would already be an issue, but his accomplishments and record should serve to put an end to serious doubts about whether or not he is able to fufill the duties of his office. However, their continuous, breathless coverage of his age has not receded even with his accomplishments. President Biden occasionally commits minor gaffes which serve as confirmation for the bias of those who are looking critically at him.
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The media covers the horserace numbers more than actual coverage of what the administration would look like from 2024 to 2028 depending upon who occupied the White House probably because they believe there is more interest in the horserace numbers, and they believe that most people will not read stories about what the re-election of each candidate would mean. Therefore, they rarely cover the consequences of what the re-election of each candidate would be. Major republican officials whether previously served in the defendant’s administration or they were elected to some office act like the choice between lowering the tax rate of the top wage earners is as important as attempting a coup by inciting an armed insurrection. Mostly, these people are not stupid; they know that these things are not equivalent. They are doing this because they are paid to do so or because it is politically more expedient for them to do so now or to help them win re-election. This is abhorrent. Most of them know better. F**k them all to Hell.
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Finally, many people are reluctant to believe that they are really going to be forced to choose between these two candidates, as if the number of years a person has spent on the planet has meaning on its own when in reality it depends upon the person. Some people are not functioning well at 60 or 70 or 75 or 80; others are doing great. It depends upon the person. The only negative thing I can see out of his age is that when combined with his stutter, he can often be a little difficult to understand at times. However, again, his mind is undeniably sharp and he has accomplished so much. He has championed and gotten through Congress a lot of good legislation. He has managed Ukraine well. Even if you have disagreements with President Biden on how Gaza is being handled, he has shown that he does care about the status of the Palestinians, Donald Trump would be much worse for the Palestinians, and all the good he has done elsewhere and the damage and existential threat to our democracy that Donald Trump presents make it, most of us would agree that it is imperative that we re-elect President Biden. The economy is good. President Biden has been a good steward of the office to which he was entrusted.
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